Friday, November 21, 2014

March of the Non-White Babies

From The Atlantic
CITYLAB 

Demographer William Frey explains how minorities are poised to re-map America.
Image
Mark Byrnes/CityLab
By 2050, there will be no racial majority in the United States. "Minorities"—or groups that are thought of as minorities now—will outnumber the white population. This isn't a small deal. It's going to be this century's baby boom, affecting everything from family structures to economic trends to, obviously, voting patterns.
The U.S. minority population has been growing rapidly and will soon supersede the white population.  
(Brookings Institution Press)
In his new book Diversity Explosion, Brookings Institution demographer William Frey analyzes current demographic trends and predicts how they're going to shape America's not-so-distant future.
The share of so-called "new minorities"—Hispanics, Asians and multi-racial groups in America—is going to double. If your first guess is that this is all due to immigration, you're not entirely wrong—it's because of past immigration. What's really driving the growth now (and will continue to do so in the future) is that majority of the immigrants who are already here are at the baby-making age.
"Back in the 1950s, we had a lot of Americans across the board in their childbearing years—we had all these babies," Frey explains. "Now, that's really only the case for some of the newer minorities."
The share of "new minorities"—Asians, Hispanics—is going to double. The multiracial population is going to grow to almost four times its current size. 
(Brookings Institution Press)
This is good news, demographically speaking, because as it turns out, the white population in the U.S. is aging pretty rapidly. This surge in minority births will arrive just in time to pick up the slack, Frey says. Absent any major change in immigration policy, the future of the American labor market will depend on the next generation of U.S.-born minorities.
We spoke with Frey to get a better understanding of how this new demographic reality is likely to be distributed geographically across the country. Below are excerpts from CityLab's conversation with him, illustrated by graphs and charts from his book.  
Where are all these "new minorities" likely to live?
Back in the 1990s, people were concerned that we were going to have some kind of "balkanization" of the different demographic groups—that the new Hispanic groups that were coming to the U.S. tended to stay in the major immigrant-magnet areas like Los Angeles, Miami or New York ... and the rest of the country was moving to other parts. In the last 15 years, that changed. We now have a spread of Hispanics, especially in the Southeast part of the country, which before the recession hit was a rapidly growing area—economically.
Also, [there will be migration to] the other parts of the "new Sunbelt" in the Mountain West. The fact that lots of jobs were moving there and lots of people from all over America were moving there has created opportunities in different segments of the labor force. The recession has slowed some of that movement up in the last few years. But I think that's temporary.
The Hispanic population is fanning out from immigrant enclaves to cities in the Southeast and Mountain West, where Frey predicts economic opportunities will grow.  
(Brookings Institution Press)
New destinations for the Asian population (that contains a variety of subgroups) include Atlanta, Austin, Raleigh, Phoenix, Tampa and Indianapolis.  
(Brookings Institution Press)
What about migration between cities and suburbs?
People used to move to the suburbs because they were raising kids and they wanted to have a place that's safe for raising their kids and have good schools. Now, that's the "new minorities," that's not whites anymore, and it's helping to make the suburbs a lot more vibrant.
We have, for a while, seen minorities move to the suburbs. More Asian metropolitan residents live in the suburbs than in the cities than two decades ago. Eventually, more Hispanics moved into the suburbs. Now, with the 2010 Census, there are more blacks moving to the suburbs ... which is a real milestone in the U.S. given the strong city-concentration of blacks for many, many, many decades. This younger generation of African-Americans—professionals and graduates—are moving off to the suburbs just like younger people have ... in other race groups.
What it means for the suburbs themselves is that they've got to open up their institutions and community organizations to people who are of different backgrounds.
The suburban minority population is growing, and it will continue to in the future. 
(Brookings Institution Press
There are more African-Americans living in suburbs than ever before.  
(Brookings Institution Press)
What about the African-American population overall?
In the 1990s and since 2000—the last 20 years or so—there's been a much more full migration of blacks back to the South. The major metropolitan area that's attracting blacks is Atlanta, which has been a fairly successful area for most of those areas. They haven't moved back as much to Alabama and Louisiana, places that haven't been doing as well.
Cities like Chicago, which gained African-Americans in the early part of the 20th century, are now losing blacks to metros like Atlanta.  
(Brookings Institution Press)
It's not just people who are desperate for jobs, these are younger, middle-class blacks who are moving there. Also, we're going to see in the next decade or so, many more African-American retirees who spent their lives in Northern cities will decide when they retire they're going to move to the South. What's interesting about the black migration back to the South is that it's a real destination for them.
It's the economy, but I also think it's a little bit of history, in that, maybe their parents weren't from there but maybe their grandparents were. Or they may have had aunts and uncles who lived there and they heard stories about the South. There's something about the history of the South and the culture of the South that's part of the pull as well.
Where does all of this leave the white population?
It's kind of a zero-sum population shift for whites. [The white population] isn't growing very rapidly at all. That means any place that gains whites through migration means some other place has to lose them. About 15 states, some 140 metropolitan areas, and more than half the counties in the states are losing whites. Where whites are going are to a lot of the same places that the minorities have been going—places that have good economies in the Southeast and the Mountain West.
What are the implications of all this reshuffling?
I'd like to think this whole story about the new minority growth in the country is a good news story for the U.S. We're seeing [the implications] in interracial marriages, we're seeing it in how it's affecting the politics of places. They move at different paces in different parts of the country—but it is a moving out and an integration—not only across regions, cities and suburbs, but at the neighborhood level.
That's not to say that there aren't going to be some difficult transitions. We've always had difficult transitions when we had new immigrants coming to the U.S.
One of the effects of the migration patterns Frey talks about is that segregation on a city and neighborhood level will decrease further.  
(Brookings Institution Press)
Interracial marriages will keep growing by leaps and bounds, fueling the growth of multiracial Americans.  
(Brookings Institution Press)
This interview has been edited and condensed for clarity. 

No comments:

Post a Comment

Labels

Absence of citizen online privacy protection by U S government (1) achievements of women (1) Africa human rights (1) africa political violence (1) African Muslims want peace (1) African politics (1) African refugee assisting homeland (1) African violence and corruption (1) African-American art (1) agriculture biotechnology industry (1) alQaida in Africa (1) American economic system (1) American education (1) American labor movement (2) American prison system (1) American racism (1) animals (1) Animals and humans (3) anti-American Middle Eastern cyber hijackers (1) apartheid 20 years gone (1) Arnold (1) Art by artists of African descent both continental (1) Atlanta (1) Avatar (1) Barack Obama (2) BeeSweet Lemonade (1) beneficial presence in the world (1) Bill Clinton (1) biogenetics (1) birthday (1) Black male role models (1) Black men unjustly incarcerated (1) Black people worldwide (1) busting American myths (1) buyer beware (1) Caribbean Literature Book Club 2010 reading list (1) champions (1) change for america world (1) charity (1) charter schools (2) China (1) classy artists (1) Congo (1) Consumer Rights (1) consumerism (1) Cornel West (1) Cosmos (1) coups in Africa (1) creativity built from our culture (1) credit game (1) Crenshaw community (1) cyberspace brought into wars (1) Dark Matter (1) David Bowie (1) Dedan Gills (1) delusions of the American masse (1) democracy in the world (1) destroying myths that no longer serve the good (1) Dialogue in America (1) diaspora (1) Disgust; Being our true selves (1) distribution of wealth (1) donating (1) earthworms (1) ecologically smart cars; green lifestyle (1) ecology (1) economic meltdown (1) economics (1) Edge intellectuals (1) Education in America (1) Egypt (1) elevating consciousness of American people (1) endangered Mountain Gorillas (1) European internet privacy (1) Excellent athletes (1) expanding consciousness (1) fear and greed of white people (1) female corporate/ multinational CEOs (1) first blog of the year (1) freedom of the press (1) French and Mali troops roust al-Qaida Islamist invaders (1) G-20 (1) gardeners (1) giving (1) global immigration issues; Israel (1) golf (1) Good works in Africa by her children in the diaspora (1) gospel music (1) Gratitude (1) Groups doing great work (1) Haitian Earthquake relief effort (2) helping others globally (1) History of issue of race in America (1) Homophobia (1) Human omniaction (1) ignorance (1) imperialism (1) indigenious people (1) influencing purchasing trends with priming (1) Iraqi drones compromised (1) Islam (1) Islamic extremests in African; Timbuktu (2) jokes (1) Kenya bloggers (1) latest scientific discoveries (1) law (1) Los Angeles life; architecture; African-Americans in Los Angeles (2) lost world cultures (1) Love (1) Malcolm X Civil Rights Leader (1) Mali (3) Mali 2013 (1) manipulating the food of the world (1) manuscripts of Africa's past (1) men of integrity (1) men standing strong (1) Mikhail Khodorkovsky (1) military power in Afrcia (1) military power in Africa (1) Monsanto (1) MTV (1) Mugabe (2) my travels (1) Natalie Cole (1) National Parks (1) Native Americans (1) Nature at It's Best File (3) Nelson Mandela (1) Neuromelanin (1) New Yorker Magazine (1) Nigerian terrorist (1) Nobel Peace Prize winners (1) Obama as a balm (1) Obama diplomacy (1) Obama foreign diplomacy (1) Obama in Europe (1) Obama nobel prize winner (1) Obama policies regarding average citizens (1) Obama's ability to control and steer his administration (1) Octavvia E. Butler (1) order (1) organic (1) outstanding Black authors (1) Pan-African authors (1) personal fulfillment (1) Pharonic sacred science (1) photography - wildlife (1) Plant sentience (1) policies that endanger animal welfare (2) politics (1) positive life lessons (1) post-neocolonialism in Africa (1) poverty field studies in India (1) prejudice (1) priming (1) professionals (1) public protest of economic policies (1) race (1) race and housing (2) race in America (1) Racism in Hollywood (1) religious bigotry (1) right wing christians (1) right-wing fundamentalism (1) Russia (1) Russian politics (1) Sarah Palin's politics (1) Science - intelligent creative bacteria (1) scientific ignorance perpetuated in 2012 (1) sibling rivalry (1) Snoop Dogg (2) soil science (1) Somalia (1) South Africa labor problems (1) South side Chicago (1) Spring poetry (1) Stanford University (1) successful women (1) Sudan (2) technology (1) tennis (2) Thanksgiving Day (1) The Bigs/multinational corporations (1) the failure of No Child Left Behind (1) the wealthy (1) things that make you go 'hhmmm' (1) Tiger Woods (1) Timbuktu libraries (1) time (1) Toni Morrison (1) true meaning of dogsledding. (1) Tuskegee Airmen (1) Twitter hijacked (1) U S History (1) vegan (1) vegetarianism (1) Virunga Park (1) ways to help Africa (1) weak results re: campaign promises (1) wealth in America (1) wholesome food sources (2) wildlife and their habitats (1) Williams sisters (2) Wimbledon (1) wolves (1) women leaders (1) world economy (1) writing (1) Xmas 2009 (1) yahoo (1) young Black entrepreneurs (1) Zimbabwe election (1)